The latest quarterly reports from major Chinese companies have highlighted the complexities of the local market, making it a challenging environment for stock pickers. According to Lorraine Tan, director of Asia equity research at Morningstar, the trend in the market shows a pattern of weakness reflecting macro trends, with cautious guidance being provided. This indicates that despite some outperformance, it is unique to certain companies that have a more resilient mix of products or business market positions.
Alibaba and Tencent, for example, have reported significant increases in their capital expenditures in the past quarter. This observation by Morgan Stanley China equity strategist Laura Wang suggests a potential turnaround in domestic demand for companies like GDS Holdings. Wang’s optimism stems from GDS’ first mover advantage in overseas expansion, particularly in Malaysia. Similarly, other Chinese companies like Temu parent PDD Holdings are also expanding their exposure to overseas growth, with a growing presence in the CoreValues Alpha Greater China Growth ETF (CGRO).
ETF Performance and Market Volatility
The CGRO ETF, which holds over 30 Chinese companies, aims to avoid compromising American tech interests or values, while also steering clear of U.S. sanctions lists. Despite the ETF being relatively new, it has underperformed compared to other Chinese-focused ETFs like KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). The founder of CoreValues Alpha, Ben Harburg, believes that active portfolio management is necessary to navigate the complexities of the Chinese market. He emphasizes the need for a selective approach to trading Chinese stocks, rather than relying on a rising tide to lift all boats.
Chinese stocks in both Hong Kong and mainland China have faced challenges in recovering from the impacts of the pandemic, due to uncertainties surrounding growth and policy decisions. Harburg believes that Beijing is unlikely to stimulate growth, and that the real catalyst for Chinese stocks might come from a potential drop in the U.S. stock market. He points out that Japan and India have seen gains in their stock markets, diverting capital that could have gone into Chinese stocks.
Investing in Chinese stocks requires a deep understanding of the market landscape, geopolitical factors, and individual company positioning. While there is potential for growth and outperformance, the volatile nature of the market and the need for active management make it a challenging environment for investors. By carefully assessing market trends, company performance, and global economic factors, investors can navigate the complexities of the Chinese market with greater confidence and success.
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