Historically, September has proven to be a challenging month for Apple in terms of stock performance. Over the past 10 years, Apple shares have experienced an average loss of 3.5% during the month of September. This decline comes after solid gains in July (6.5%) and August (4.8%). Despite gaining 3.1% in August of this year and nearly 19% overall, Apple’s track record in September remains less than stellar.
Apple is set to announce new iPhones and Apple Watch models on September 9 at a press event in Cupertino, California. The anticipated announcement is expected to focus on the integration of Apple Intelligence into the new iPhone 16 model, which could potentially drive interest and demand for Apple’s advancements in artificial intelligence. Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that this year’s announcement could lead to a more positive stock performance than historical trends indicate.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring believes that Apple shares tend to outperform when the company’s product replacement cycles shorten. He foresees a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026 and remains bullish on Apple’s ability to drive a multiyear product cycle refresh. Woodring has given Apple an overweight rating with a $273 price target, suggesting a potential upside of 19.2% from the stock’s current price. On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt has a more neutral stance on Apple shares, with a $190 price target indicating a potential 17% decrease over the next year.
With the lowest consumer purchases of iPhone models typically occurring in August, Vogt highlights potential risks leading up to the September launch. He notes that if iPhone units for August were around 14 million, a 3% decrease from the previous month, then a substantial increase in sell-through units in September would be necessary to meet sales estimates. This could be particularly challenging given that Apple Intelligence is still in beta and not yet available in Europe.
While September has historically been a challenging month for Apple in terms of stock performance, this year’s anticipated announcement could potentially lead to a more positive outcome. Analysts are divided in their predictions, with some expecting a strong performance driven by new product cycles and advancements in artificial intelligence, while others foresee potential risks and challenges ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring Apple’s performance following the September announcement to see if 2021 will break the September curse for the tech giant.
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