Strategies to Block National Rally Victory in French Parliamentary Elections

The recent French parliamentary elections have shown a surge in support for the far-right National Rally (RN), causing concern among left-wing and centrist parties. With the first round results indicating a strong showing for the RN, there is a scramble to prevent them from dominating the National Assembly and gaining a majority in the upcoming second round of voting.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and President Emmanual Macron’s centrist Together bloc are strategizing on how to minimize the RN’s success in the election. Tactical voting and alliances are being formed to block the far-right faction from securing an absolute majority in the second round. This involves encouraging third-place candidates to pull out of races against RN candidates to consolidate support in a single front.

The ultimate outcome of the election will hinge on deal-making between left-wing and centrist parties, with the possibility of creating “Republican fronts” to defeat RN candidates. However, uncertainty looms as voter turnout and the success of tactical voting remain uncertain. Pascal Lamy highlights the three potential election outcomes – a far-right majority, a hung assembly, or a coalition with the far right – all of which are still on the table.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, emphasizes the likelihood of a hung parliament where none of the major parties can secure a majority. This scenario would result in a government that struggles to get things done due to the lack of consensus among the competing factions.

As the French parliamentary elections progress to the second round, left-wing and centrist parties are devising strategies to block the National Rally from gaining dominance in the National Assembly. Tactical voting, alliances, and deal-making will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election, with uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a far-right majority, a hung assembly, or a coalition government. The next round of voting will prove to be decisive in shaping the future political landscape of France.