A potential disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify into a tropical storm on Monday, with the possibility of it developing into a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This disturbance, referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is currently situated approximately 300 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and is tracking in a north-northwest direction. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is projected to travel offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and could make its way towards the coastlines of Louisiana and upper Texas by Wednesday.
Tropical storm watches have been put in place for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, as the Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall and possibly trigger flash flooding along the coastlines of northeast Mexico, southern Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi until Thursday morning. While the exact areas of impact cannot be determined at this time, the storm’s potential for life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds is growing for sections of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines starting Tuesday night, as stated by the weather service.
As of now, there have been a total of five named storms in the 2024 Atlantic storm season, with three of them escalating into hurricanes. The tropical cyclone activity observed in August was considered slightly below normal in terms of the number of named storms by the hurricane center. Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 1 hurricane before transitioning into a tropical storm and making landfall again in South Carolina in early August. Ernesto also reached Category 1 hurricane status when passing over Bermuda in mid-August.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had previously forecasted above-normal hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin for the year, predicting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with eight to 13 of them expected to become hurricanes. This heightened activity was foreseen due to the near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and minimal wind shear.
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